Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Forecast period: 2026-06 to 2026-11 · Updated: 08/07/2026

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

-28924

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

17 (13%)

Δ vs last month

-1

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Iran-10000.0→
Ukraine-8576.4→
Syria-3857.3→
Nigeria-988.0→
Sudan-811.0→
Pakistan-596.4→

Highest risk (next month)

Somalia602272.8→
Iran16956.2→
Ukraine8699.7→
Israel1209.1→
Sudan1035.2→
Nigeria953.9→

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Somalia	602272.8	-153.5	602272.8	602272.8
Iran	16956.2	-10000	16956.2	16956.2
Ukraine	8699.7	-8576.4	8699.7	8699.7
Israel	1209.1	-353.8	1209.1	1209.1
Sudan	1035.2	-811	1035.2	1035.2
Nigeria	953.9	-988	953.9	953.9
Lebanon	529.6	-333.3	529.6	529.6
Dem. Rep. Congo	366.2	-217.5	366.2	366.2
Ethiopia	322	-197.5	322	322
Yemen	261.3	-215.2	261.3	261.3
Burkina Faso	241	-193.1	241	241
Pakistan	232	-596.4	232	232
Mexico	209.8	-231	209.8	209.8
Mali	205.3	-381.1	205.3	205.3
Colombia	177.2	-173.7	177.2	177.2
Myanmar	133.5	-180	133.5	133.5
Haiti	113.1	-70.3	113.1	113.1
Iraq	91.8	-153.7	91.8	91.8
S. Sudan	89.9	-27.5	89.9	89.9
Syria	82.3	-3857.3	82.3	82.3
Cambodia	82.3	-4.6	82.3	82.3
South Africa	81.8	-78	81.8	81.8
Niger	74	-79	74	74
Sri Lanka	68.5	-92.3	68.5	68.5
Honduras	62.5	+0	62.5	62.5
Cameroon	52.2	-38.1	52.2	52.2
Philippines	45.4	-20.2	45.4	45.4
India	40	-50.1	40	40
Mozambique	36	-75.3	36	36
Russia	34.6	-35.1	34.6	34.6
Brazil	24.4	-26.5	24.4	24.4
Ecuador	21.6	-41	21.6	21.6
Chad	20.4	-7.6	20.4	20.4
Qatar	15.3	-9.4	15.3	15.3
Kuwait	13	-27.3	13	13
Thailand	12.8	-2.6	12.8	12.8
Afghanistan	12.3	-12.3	12.3	12.3
Ghana	12.2	-20.3	12.2	12.2
Burundi	11.5	-10.7	11.5	11.5
Indonesia	11.4	-10.1	11.4	11.4
Djibouti	10	+0	10	10
Central African Rep.	9.5	-10	9.5	9.5
Libya	8.9	-1.9	8.9	8.9
Argentina	8	-7.9	8	8
Algeria	7.9	-0.1	7.9	7.9
Venezuela	7.8	-41.4	7.8	7.8
Benin	7.3	-7.1	7.3	7.3
Uganda	7.2	-2.8	7.2	7.2
Côte d'Ivoire	6.8	-9.3	6.8	6.8
United States of America	4.7	-80.9	4.7	4.7
Bangladesh	4.3	-16.5	4.3	4.3
Tajikistan	4	-9.1	4	4
Tunisia	3.9	-3.6	3.9	3.9
Belize	3.9	-5.5	3.9	3.9
Canada	3.8	-3	3.8	3.8
Angola	3.3	-19.3	3.3	3.3
Kenya	2.4	-17.7	2.4	2.4
Costa Rica	2.3	-1.2	2.3	2.3
Morocco	2.2	-2.9	2.2	2.2
Papua New Guinea	2.1	-1.8	2.1	2.1
Oman	2.1	-1.5	2.1	2.1
Guinea	2	-1.1	2	2
Malaysia	1.8	-3	1.8	1.8
Guinea-Bissau	1.8	-2.1	1.8	1.8
United Arab Emirates	1.6	-2.3	1.6	1.6
Saudi Arabia	1.2	-0.6	1.2	1.2
Dominican Rep.	1.2	-2.2	1.2	1.2
Sweden	1	-1	1	1
Egypt	1	-0.2	1	1
Dominica	1	-47.5	1	1
Tanzania	0.9	-0.2	0.9	0.9
Turkey	0.8	-1.5	0.8	0.8
Togo	0.8	-16.7	0.8	0.8
Moldova	0.7	+0	0.7	0.7
Malta	0.7	-96.6	0.7	0.7
Guatemala	0.7	-19.3	0.7	0.7
Bahrain	0.7	-1.7	0.7	0.7
Trinidad and Tobago	0.6	-3.2	0.6	0.6
Liberia	0.6	-1	0.6	0.6
eSwatini	0.3	-3.8	0.3	0.3
Antigua & Barbuda	0.1	-27	0.1	0.1
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Zambia	0	+0	0	0
Uzbekistan	0	+0	0	0
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Rwanda	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Peru	0	-1.2	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Nepal	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Laos	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Jordan	0	+0	0	0
Jamaica	0	-8.9	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Germany	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
France	0	-89	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Belgium	0	+0	0	0
Barbados	0	+0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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