Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Forecast period: 2026-10 to 2027-03 · Updated: 01/11/2026

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

-20970

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

17 (13%)

Δ vs last month

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Iran-10000.0→
Ukraine-5888.3→
Pakistan-602.5→
Nigeria-587.1→
Ethiopia-379.5→
Sudan-357.6→

Highest risk (next month)

Iran27092.2→
Ukraine6172.2→
Yemen1567.2→
Somalia851.9→
Pakistan726.7→
Nigeria615.3→

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Iran	27092.2	-10000	27092.2	27092.2
Ukraine	6172.2	-5888.3	6172.2	6172.2
Yemen	1567.2	-283.8	1567.2	1567.2
Somalia	851.9	-299.7	851.9	851.9
Pakistan	726.7	-602.5	726.7	726.7
Nigeria	615.3	-587.1	615.3	615.3
Sudan	468.8	-357.6	468.8	468.8
Dem. Rep. Congo	296.6	-302.5	296.6	296.6
Ethiopia	266.6	-379.5	266.6	266.6
Mexico	222.1	-224.8	222.1	222.1
Mali	208.2	-118.6	208.2	208.2
Colombia	157.2	-132	157.2	157.2
Myanmar	148.4	-94.6	148.4	148.4
Israel	131.1	-118.9	131.1	131.1
Lebanon	119.2	-119.2	119.2	119.2
S. Sudan	111.8	-45.3	111.8	111.8
Niger	106.2	-118.5	106.2	106.2
Burkina Faso	91.5	-155.2	91.5	91.5
Haiti	76.1	-44.6	76.1	76.1
Russia	59.9	-22.1	59.9	59.9
Afghanistan	58.2	-47.2	58.2	58.2
Kenya	53.9	-10.1	53.9	53.9
Syria	50.9	-62.6	50.9	50.9
Cameroon	44.1	-33.4	44.1	44.1
Philippines	39.3	-29.8	39.3	39.3
Iraq	33	-10.3	33	33
India	32.5	-35.3	32.5	32.5
Venezuela	26.6	-24.7	26.6	26.6
Honduras	23.4	-29.9	23.4	23.4
Brazil	22	-15.6	22	22
Saudi Arabia	19.4	-1.2	19.4	19.4
Central African Rep.	16.9	-13.7	16.9	16.9
Mozambique	16.3	-23.1	16.3	16.3
Algeria	15.4	-15.4	15.4	15.4
South Africa	14.9	-14.1	14.9	14.9
Ecuador	13.3	-22	13.3	13.3
Indonesia	10.4	-10	10.4	10.4
Bangladesh	8.9	-9.9	8.9	8.9
Sri Lanka	8.7	-1.8	8.7	8.7
Jordan	8.2	-3.2	8.2	8.2
Guatemala	7	-11.2	7	7
Djibouti	6.5	-5	6.5	6.5
Peru	6.1	-9.2	6.1	6.1
Burundi	6.1	-2.7	6.1	6.1
Chad	5.9	-1.1	5.9	5.9
Papua New Guinea	5.5	-3.9	5.5	5.5
Ghana	5.2	-8.1	5.2	5.2
Côte d'Ivoire	5.1	-22.1	5.1	5.1
Oman	5	-1.3	5	5
Cambodia	4.5	-54.9	4.5	4.5
Benin	4.4	-2	4.4	4.4
Canada	4.2	-3	4.2	4.2
Turkey	3.9	-0.6	3.9	3.9
Thailand	3.8	-14.8	3.8	3.8
Germany	3.8	-2.9	3.8	3.8
Tajikistan	2.6	-1.5	2.6	2.6
Tunisia	2.4	-7.6	2.4	2.4
Nepal	2.4	-4.8	2.4	2.4
Argentina	2.4	-3.5	2.4	2.4
Libya	2.2	-1.8	2.2	2.2
Guinea-Bissau	2	-1.3	2	2
France	2	-3.1	2	2
Morocco	1.9	-2.2	1.9	1.9
Spain	1.8	-1.5	1.8	1.8
Belize	1.6	-1.4	1.6	1.6
Chile	1.4	-1.8	1.4	1.4
Bahrain	1.1	-1.2	1.1	1.1
Jamaica	1	-0.8	1	1
United States of America	0.9	-0.2	0.9	0.9
Moldova	0.8	-71.4	0.8	0.8
Zambia	0.7	-88.1	0.7	0.7
Tanzania	0.7	-53.7	0.7	0.7
Dominican Rep.	0.6	-0.8	0.6	0.6
Togo	0.5	-1.5	0.5	0.5
United Arab Emirates	0.4	-1.3	0.4	0.4
Uganda	0.4	-2.6	0.4	0.4
Angola	0.4	-75.6	0.4	0.4
Sweden	0.3	-0.3	0.3	0.3
Kuwait	0.3	-5.9	0.3	0.3
Dominica	0.3	-89.7	0.3	0.3
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Uzbekistan	0	+0	0	0
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
Trinidad and Tobago	0	-3.7	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Rwanda	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Qatar	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	0
Malta	0	+0	0	0
Malaysia	0	-0.4	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Liberia	0	-0.1	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Laos	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Guinea	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
eSwatini	0	+0	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Egypt	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Costa Rica	0	-91.5	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Belgium	0	+0	0	0
Barbados	0	+0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Antigua & Barbuda	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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