Forecasts
Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.
Forecast period: 2026-03 to 2026-08 · Updated: 14/04/2026
All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary
Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)
0
Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries
Δ total vs previous month
-12202
High‑risk countries (>100 next month)
19 (14%)
Δ vs last month
+6
Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)
Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.
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| Name | 1m Pred. | Δ MoM | 3m Pred. | 6m Pred. | 1–6m Pred. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 5944.4 | -6717.6 | 5944.4 | 5944.4 | |
| Syria | 4774.9 | -93 | 4774.9 | 4774.9 | |
| Israel | 1351.9 | -417.7 | 1351.9 | 1351.9 | |
| Iran | 1289.4 | -60.4 | 1289.4 | 1289.4 | |
| Nigeria | 1272.6 | -439.1 | 1272.6 | 1272.6 | |
| Lebanon | 1255.2 | -24.1 | 1255.2 | 1255.2 | |
| Sudan | 1144.2 | -767.4 | 1144.2 | 1144.2 | |
| Niger | 841.5 | -83.3 | 841.5 | 841.5 | |
| Somalia | 581.4 | -350.9 | 581.4 | 581.4 | |
| Russia | 494.1 | -92.1 | 494.1 | 494.1 | |
| Burkina Faso | 413.6 | -218 | 413.6 | 413.6 | |
| Pakistan | 255.1 | -350.4 | 255.1 | 255.1 | |
| Mexico | 199.5 | -406.1 | 199.5 | 199.5 | |
| Ethiopia | 198.8 | -373.6 | 198.8 | 198.8 | |
| Myanmar | 191 | -139.6 | 191 | 191 | |
| Haiti | 178.4 | -35 | 178.4 | 178.4 | |
| Colombia | 152.5 | -61 | 152.5 | 152.5 | |
| Dem. Rep. Congo | 109.9 | -384.3 | 109.9 | 109.9 | |
| Mali | 101.1 | -145 | 101.1 | 101.1 | |
| Yemen | 82.4 | -125.7 | 82.4 | 82.4 | |
| Bangladesh | 54.9 | -4.7 | 54.9 | 54.9 | |
| India | 50.2 | -59.4 | 50.2 | 50.2 | |
| Mozambique | 47.6 | -40 | 47.6 | 47.6 | |
| Cambodia | 35.2 | -3.8 | 35.2 | 35.2 | |
| Brazil | 31.4 | -27.8 | 31.4 | 31.4 | |
| Central African Rep. | 30.1 | -7 | 30.1 | 30.1 | |
| S. Sudan | 28.4 | -37.5 | 28.4 | 28.4 | |
| Tunisia | 28 | +0 | 28 | 28 | |
| Iraq | 25.4 | -12.7 | 25.4 | 25.4 | |
| Cameroon | 24.7 | -31.1 | 24.7 | 24.7 | |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 21.9 | -1.6 | 21.9 | 21.9 | |
| Afghanistan | 17.6 | -12.3 | 17.6 | 17.6 | |
| Ecuador | 17.4 | -20.1 | 17.4 | 17.4 | |
| Djibouti | 15.4 | +0 | 15.4 | 15.4 | |
| Indonesia | 15.1 | -16.5 | 15.1 | 15.1 | |
| Kenya | 12.1 | -7.2 | 12.1 | 12.1 | |
| Burundi | 12 | -6 | 12 | 12 | |
| Philippines | 7.9 | -11.8 | 7.9 | 7.9 | |
| Costa Rica | 7.2 | +0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | |
| Algeria | 6.6 | -70.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | |
| Thailand | 6.5 | -31.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | |
| South Africa | 6.5 | -32 | 6.5 | 6.5 | |
| Papua New Guinea | 4.3 | -2.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | |
| Liberia | 4 | -17.9 | 4 | 4 | |
| Argentina | 3.8 | -4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | |
| Turkey | 3.5 | -41.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| Uganda | 3.3 | -1.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 | |
| Benin | 3.2 | -19.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Chad | 3.1 | -13.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 3 | -0.3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Germany | 3 | +0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Mauritania | 2.8 | +0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| Guatemala | 2.3 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Angola | 2.1 | -7.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Qatar | 2 | -6.1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Togo | 1.9 | -43.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| Dominican Rep. | 1.9 | +0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| Barbados | 1.8 | +0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Guinea | 1.7 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
| eSwatini | 1.7 | -8.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
| Laos | 1.6 | -5.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
| Azerbaijan | 1.6 | +0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
| Tanzania | 1.5 | -0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Rwanda | 1.4 | +0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |
| Venezuela | 1.2 | -4.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Malaysia | 1.2 | -2.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Libya | 1.2 | -2.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.1 | +0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Malawi | 1.1 | +0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Malta | 1 | -1.6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghana | 1 | -7.2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honduras | 0.9 | -62.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Sweden | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Uzbekistan | 0.6 | +0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Greece | 0.6 | +0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Belize | 0.6 | +0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Nepal | 0.5 | -3.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| France | 0.4 | -18.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Belgium | 0.4 | +0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Antigua & Barbuda | 0.3 | +0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.2 | -33.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Jamaica | 0.2 | -47.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Dominica | 0.2 | +0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Peru | 0.1 | -34.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Egypt | 0.1 | -63.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Zimbabwe | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zambia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unnamed: 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| United States of America | 0 | -4.1 | 0 | 0 | |
| United Kingdom | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tajikistan | 0 | -17.7 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sri Lanka | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spain | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Solomon Islands | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sierra Leone | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serbia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Senegal | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Romania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poland | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Paraguay | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Panama | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nicaragua | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Netherlands | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Namibia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morocco | 0 | -4.8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Moldova | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Madagascar | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Macedonia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lesotho | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kuwait | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jordan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Italy | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guyana | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Georgia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gambia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eritrea | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| El Salvador | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Croatia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Congo | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Comoros | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| China | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Canada | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Botswana | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bosnia and Herz. | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bolivia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bhutan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bahrain | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Austria | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Australia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Armenia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Albania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 |