Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Forecast period: 2026-07 to 2026-12 · Updated: 01/08/2026

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

-36049

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

19 (14%)

Δ vs last month

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Iran-10000.0→
Somalia-10000.0→
Ukraine-8699.7→
Israel-1209.1→
Sudan-1035.2→
Nigeria-953.9→

Highest risk (next month)

Somalia556007.5→
Iran22870.4→
Sudan10304.0→
Ukraine5036.8→
Afghanistan660.7→
Nigeria655.2→

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Somalia	556007.5	-10000	556007.5	556007.5
Iran	22870.4	-10000	22870.4	22870.4
Sudan	10304	-1035.2	10304	10304
Ukraine	5036.8	-8699.7	5036.8	5036.8
Afghanistan	660.7	-12.3	660.7	660.7
Nigeria	655.2	-953.9	655.2	655.2
Dem. Rep. Congo	473	-366.2	473	473
Pakistan	440.5	-232	440.5	440.5
Ethiopia	298.9	-322	298.9	298.9
Lebanon	250.7	-529.6	250.7	250.7
Mexico	236.3	-209.8	236.3	236.3
Yemen	179.3	-261.3	179.3	179.3
Burkina Faso	166.4	-241	166.4	166.4
Myanmar	157.1	-133.5	157.1	157.1
Mali	130.4	-205.3	130.4	130.4
Israel	124.8	-1209.1	124.8	124.8
Colombia	120	-177.2	120	120
Niger	110	-74	110	110
S. Sudan	106.9	-89.9	106.9	106.9
Syria	88.2	-82.3	88.2	88.2
Cambodia	81.6	-82.3	81.6	81.6
Sri Lanka	74.1	-68.5	74.1	74.1
Mozambique	66.2	-36	66.2	66.2
South Africa	48.2	-81.8	48.2	48.2
Cameroon	43.8	-52.2	43.8	43.8
Honduras	37.1	-62.5	37.1	37.1
Iraq	35.6	-91.8	35.6	35.6
Kuwait	29.4	-13	29.4	29.4
Central African Rep.	26.7	-9.5	26.7	26.7
Ecuador	23.4	-21.6	23.4	23.4
Russia	22.8	-34.6	22.8	22.8
Burundi	22.7	-11.5	22.7	22.7
Haiti	21.7	-113.1	21.7	21.7
Brazil	20.5	-24.4	20.5	20.5
Bangladesh	18.7	-4.3	18.7	18.7
Chad	17.2	-20.4	17.2	17.2
Philippines	14.7	-45.4	14.7	14.7
Thailand	14	-12.8	14	14
India	14	-40	14	14
Côte d'Ivoire	12.7	-6.8	12.7	12.7
Algeria	11.2	-7.9	11.2	11.2
Benin	7.4	-7.3	7.4	7.4
Canada	7	-3.8	7	7
Malaysia	6.8	-1.8	6.8	6.8
Kenya	6.6	-2.4	6.6	6.6
Ghana	5.5	-12.2	5.5	5.5
Djibouti	5	-10	5	5
Guatemala	4.9	-0.7	4.9	4.9
Uganda	4.7	-7.2	4.7	4.7
United States of America	4.6	-4.7	4.6	4.6
Tunisia	4.1	-3.9	4.1	4.1
Trinidad and Tobago	3.5	-0.6	3.5	3.5
Tajikistan	3.3	-4	3.3	3.3
Venezuela	3.2	-7.8	3.2	3.2
Argentina	2.4	-8	2.4	2.4
Morocco	2.3	-2.2	2.3	2.3
Liberia	2.3	-0.6	2.3	2.3
Libya	2	-8.9	2	2
Guinea-Bissau	2	-1.8	2	2
Belize	1.9	-3.9	1.9	1.9
Qatar	1.6	-15.3	1.6	1.6
United Arab Emirates	1.5	-1.6	1.5	1.5
Angola	1.4	-3.3	1.4	1.4
Turkey	1.3	-82.7	1.3	1.3
Saudi Arabia	1.2	-1.2	1.2	1.2
Malta	1.2	-71.8	1.2	1.2
Indonesia	1.2	-11.4	1.2	1.2
Papua New Guinea	1.1	-2.1	1.1	1.1
Guinea	1.1	-2	1.1	1.1
Sweden	0.9	-1	0.9	0.9
Bahrain	0.9	-0.7	0.9	0.9
Dominican Rep.	0.7	-1.2	0.7	0.7
Costa Rica	0.7	-2.3	0.7	0.7
Moldova	0.6	-0.7	0.6	0.6
Togo	0.4	-75	0.4	0.4
Tanzania	0.3	-0.9	0.3	0.3
Dominica	0.3	-1	0.3	0.3
Jamaica	0.2	-4.6	0.2	0.2
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Zambia	0	+0	0	0
Uzbekistan	0	+0	0	0
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Rwanda	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Peru	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Oman	0	-2.1	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Nepal	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Laos	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Jordan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Germany	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
France	0	+0	0	0
eSwatini	0	-0.3	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Egypt	0	-1	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Belgium	0	+0	0	0
Barbados	0	+0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Antigua & Barbuda	0	-0.1	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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