Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Forecast period: 2026-08 to 2027-01 · Updated: 01/09/2026

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

-40180

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

16 (12%)

Δ vs last month

-3

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Iran-10000.0→
Somalia-10000.0→
Sudan-10000.0→
Ukraine-5036.8→
Afghanistan-660.7→
Nigeria-655.2→

Highest risk (next month)

Somalia657053.4→
Iran25682.6→
Sudan6548.0→
Ukraine5649.8→
Nigeria592.0→
Dem. Rep. Congo418.1→

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Somalia	657053.4	-10000	657053.4	657053.4
Iran	25682.6	-10000	25682.6	25682.6
Sudan	6548	-10000	6548	6548
Ukraine	5649.8	-5036.8	5649.8	5649.8
Nigeria	592	-655.2	592	592
Dem. Rep. Congo	418.1	-473	418.1	418.1
Mexico	362.4	-236.3	362.4	362.4
Ethiopia	249.7	-298.9	249.7	249.7
Pakistan	231.9	-440.5	231.9	231.9
Israel	168.5	-124.8	168.5	168.5
Burkina Faso	163.1	-166.4	163.1	163.1
Colombia	135.2	-120	135.2	135.2
Lebanon	119.2	-250.7	119.2	119.2
Myanmar	112.5	-157.1	112.5	112.5
Niger	107.3	-110	107.3	107.3
Yemen	105.6	-179.3	105.6	105.6
Mali	90.7	-130.4	90.7	90.7
Cameroon	75.2	-43.8	75.2	75.2
Afghanistan	70.2	-660.7	70.2	70.2
S. Sudan	69.5	-106.9	69.5	69.5
Syria	67.7	-88.2	67.7	67.7
Russia	47.8	-22.8	47.8	47.8
Haiti	44.3	-21.7	44.3	44.3
South Africa	42.1	-48.2	42.1	42.1
Cambodia	38.5	-81.6	38.5	38.5
Bangladesh	38	-18.7	38	38
Sri Lanka	35.4	-74.1	35.4	35.4
Philippines	33.9	-14.7	33.9	33.9
Iraq	33.8	-35.6	33.8	33.8
Chad	31.1	-17.2	31.1	31.1
Guinea	29.5	-1.1	29.5	29.5
Mozambique	27.9	-66.2	27.9	27.9
Brazil	24.7	-20.5	24.7	24.7
Honduras	23.9	-37.1	23.9	23.9
Venezuela	20.9	-3.2	20.9	20.9
Ecuador	18.5	-23.4	18.5	18.5
Jamaica	17.5	-0.2	17.5	17.5
Algeria	15.4	-11.2	15.4	15.4
Thailand	14.4	-14	14.4	14.4
Indonesia	12.7	-1.2	12.7	12.7
Burundi	11.9	-22.7	11.9	11.9
India	11.7	-14	11.7	11.7
Peru	10.7	+0	10.7	10.7
Jordan	9.6	+0	9.6	9.6
Central African Rep.	9.2	-26.7	9.2	9.2
Tajikistan	9	-3.3	9	9
Kenya	8.8	-6.6	8.8	8.8
Malaysia	8.7	-6.8	8.7	8.7
Benin	7.9	-7.4	7.9	7.9
Germany	6.2	+0	6.2	6.2
Guatemala	6	-4.9	6	6
Djibouti	5.1	-5	5.1	5.1
Ghana	4.1	-5.5	4.1	4.1
Libya	3.6	-2	3.6	3.6
Côte d'Ivoire	3.6	-12.7	3.6	3.6
Canada	3.6	-7	3.6	3.6
Argentina	3.5	-2.4	3.5	3.5
Tunisia	2.9	-4.1	2.9	2.9
Liberia	2.9	-2.3	2.9	2.9
Turkey	2.8	-1.3	2.8	2.8
Uganda	2.2	-4.7	2.2	2.2
Saudi Arabia	2.2	-1.2	2.2	2.2
Nepal	2.1	+0	2.1	2.1
Papua New Guinea	2	-1.1	2	2
United Arab Emirates	1.5	-1.5	1.5	1.5
Belize	1.5	-1.9	1.5	1.5
Guinea-Bissau	1.3	-2	1.3	1.3
Kuwait	1.1	-29.4	1.1	1.1
Togo	0.7	-42.9	0.7	0.7
Morocco	0.7	-2.3	0.7	0.7
Malta	0.7	-1.2	0.7	0.7
Costa Rica	0.7	-0.7	0.7	0.7
Bahrain	0.6	-92.9	0.6	0.6
Tanzania	0.5	-0.3	0.5	0.5
Moldova	0.5	-58.5	0.5	0.5
Dominican Rep.	0.5	-0.7	0.5	0.5
Angola	0.5	-1.4	0.5	0.5
Sweden	0.4	-0.9	0.4	0.4
Oman	0.4	+0	0.4	0.4
Dominica	0.4	-0.3	0.4	0.4
United States of America	0.3	-4.6	0.3	0.3
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Zambia	0	+0	0	0
Uzbekistan	0	+0	0	0
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
Trinidad and Tobago	0	-3.5	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Rwanda	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Qatar	0	-1.6	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Laos	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
France	0	+0	0	0
eSwatini	0	+0	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Egypt	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Belgium	0	+0	0	0
Barbados	0	+0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Antigua & Barbuda	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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