Forecasts
Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.
Forecast period: 2026-05 to 2026-10 · Updated: 01/06/2026
All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary
Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)
0
Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries
Δ total vs previous month
-21872
High‑risk countries (>100 next month)
18 (14%)
Δ vs last month
-1
Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)
Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.
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| Name | 1m Pred. | Δ MoM | 3m Pred. | 6m Pred. | 1–6m Pred. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 10365 | -1289.4 | 10365 | 10365 | |
| Ukraine | 8576.4 | -5944.4 | 8576.4 | 8576.4 | |
| Syria | 3857.3 | -4774.9 | 3857.3 | 3857.3 | |
| Nigeria | 988 | -1272.6 | 988 | 988 | |
| Sudan | 811 | -1144.2 | 811 | 811 | |
| Pakistan | 596.4 | -255.1 | 596.4 | 596.4 | |
| Mali | 381.1 | -101.1 | 381.1 | 381.1 | |
| Israel | 353.8 | -1351.9 | 353.8 | 353.8 | |
| Lebanon | 333.3 | -1255.2 | 333.3 | 333.3 | |
| Mexico | 231 | -199.5 | 231 | 231 | |
| Dem. Rep. Congo | 217.5 | -109.9 | 217.5 | 217.5 | |
| Yemen | 215.2 | -82.4 | 215.2 | 215.2 | |
| Ethiopia | 197.5 | -198.8 | 197.5 | 197.5 | |
| Burkina Faso | 193.1 | -413.6 | 193.1 | 193.1 | |
| Myanmar | 180 | -191 | 180 | 180 | |
| Colombia | 173.7 | -152.5 | 173.7 | 173.7 | |
| Iraq | 153.7 | -25.4 | 153.7 | 153.7 | |
| Somalia | 153.5 | -581.4 | 153.5 | 153.5 | |
| Sri Lanka | 92.3 | +0 | 92.3 | 92.3 | |
| France | 89 | -40.7 | 89 | 89 | |
| Niger | 79 | -841.5 | 79 | 79 | |
| South Africa | 78 | -6.5 | 78 | 78 | |
| Mozambique | 75.3 | -47.6 | 75.3 | 75.3 | |
| Haiti | 70.3 | -178.4 | 70.3 | 70.3 | |
| India | 50.1 | -50.2 | 50.1 | 50.1 | |
| Venezuela | 41.4 | -1.2 | 41.4 | 41.4 | |
| Ecuador | 41 | -17.4 | 41 | 41 | |
| Cameroon | 38.1 | -24.7 | 38.1 | 38.1 | |
| Russia | 35.1 | -494.1 | 35.1 | 35.1 | |
| S. Sudan | 27.5 | -28.4 | 27.5 | 27.5 | |
| Kuwait | 27.3 | +0 | 27.3 | 27.3 | |
| Brazil | 26.5 | -31.4 | 26.5 | 26.5 | |
| Ghana | 20.3 | -99.1 | 20.3 | 20.3 | |
| Philippines | 20.2 | -7.9 | 20.2 | 20.2 | |
| Guatemala | 19.3 | -2.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | |
| Angola | 19.3 | -2.1 | 19.3 | 19.3 | |
| Kenya | 17.7 | -12.1 | 17.7 | 17.7 | |
| Bangladesh | 16.5 | -54.9 | 16.5 | 16.5 | |
| Afghanistan | 12.3 | -17.6 | 12.3 | 12.3 | |
| Burundi | 10.7 | -12 | 10.7 | 10.7 | |
| Indonesia | 10.1 | -15.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | |
| Central African Rep. | 10 | -30.1 | 10 | 10 | |
| Qatar | 9.4 | -2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 9.3 | -21.9 | 9.3 | 9.3 | |
| Tajikistan | 9.1 | +0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | |
| Jamaica | 8.9 | -0.2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | |
| Argentina | 7.9 | -3.8 | 7.9 | 7.9 | |
| Chad | 7.6 | -3.1 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |
| Benin | 7.1 | -3.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | |
| Belize | 5.5 | -0.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | |
| Cambodia | 4.6 | -35.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | |
| eSwatini | 3.8 | -1.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | |
| Tunisia | 3.6 | -28 | 3.6 | 3.6 | |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 3.2 | -3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Malaysia | 3 | -1.2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Canada | 3 | +0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Morocco | 2.9 | +0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
| Uganda | 2.8 | -3.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | |
| Thailand | 2.6 | -6.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| United Arab Emirates | 2.3 | -1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Dominican Rep. | 2.2 | -1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Guinea-Bissau | 2.1 | +0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| Libya | 1.9 | -1.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |
| Papua New Guinea | 1.8 | -4.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Bahrain | 1.7 | +0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
| Turkey | 1.5 | -3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Oman | 1.5 | +0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Peru | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Costa Rica | 1.2 | -7.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Guinea | 1.1 | -1.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Sweden | 1 | -69.5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Malta | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liberia | 1 | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| United States of America | 0.8 | -3.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Dominica | 0.5 | -20.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Antigua & Barbuda | 0.3 | -28.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Togo | 0.2 | -1.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Tanzania | 0.2 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Egypt | 0.2 | -5.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Algeria | 0.1 | -6.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Zimbabwe | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zambia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | -60.4 | 0 | 0 | |
| United Kingdom | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spain | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Solomon Islands | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sierra Leone | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serbia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Senegal | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rwanda | 0 | -1.4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Romania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poland | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Paraguay | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Panama | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nicaragua | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Netherlands | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nepal | 0 | -49.8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Namibia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Moldova | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mauritania | 0 | -2.8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Malawi | 0 | -1.1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Madagascar | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Macedonia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lesotho | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Laos | 0 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jordan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Italy | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honduras | 0 | -0.9 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guyana | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Greece | 0 | -57 | 0 | 0 | |
| Germany | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Georgia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gambia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eritrea | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| El Salvador | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Djibouti | 0 | -15.4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Croatia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Congo | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Comoros | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| China | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Botswana | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bosnia and Herz. | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bolivia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bhutan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Belgium | 0 | -39.9 | 0 | 0 | |
| Barbados | 0 | -1.8 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azerbaijan | 0 | -1.6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Austria | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Australia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Armenia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Albania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 |