Forecasts
Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.
Forecast period: 2026-09 to 2027-02 · Updated: 20/10/2026
All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary
Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)
0
Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries
Δ total vs previous month
-36538
High‑risk countries (>100 next month)
16 (12%)
Δ vs last month
+0
Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)
Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.
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| Name | 1m Pred. | Δ MoM | 3m Pred. | 6m Pred. | 1–6m Pred. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 36128.7 | -10000 | 36128.7 | 36128.7 | |
| Ukraine | 5888.3 | -5649.8 | 5888.3 | 5888.3 | |
| Pakistan | 602.5 | -231.9 | 602.5 | 602.5 | |
| Nigeria | 587.1 | -592 | 587.1 | 587.1 | |
| Ethiopia | 379.5 | -249.7 | 379.5 | 379.5 | |
| Sudan | 357.6 | -6548 | 357.6 | 357.6 | |
| Dem. Rep. Congo | 302.5 | -418.1 | 302.5 | 302.5 | |
| Somalia | 299.7 | -10000 | 299.7 | 299.7 | |
| Yemen | 283.8 | -105.6 | 283.8 | 283.8 | |
| Mexico | 224.8 | -362.4 | 224.8 | 224.8 | |
| Burkina Faso | 155.2 | -163.1 | 155.2 | 155.2 | |
| Colombia | 132 | -135.2 | 132 | 132 | |
| Lebanon | 119.2 | -119.2 | 119.2 | 119.2 | |
| Israel | 118.9 | -168.5 | 118.9 | 118.9 | |
| Mali | 118.6 | -90.7 | 118.6 | 118.6 | |
| Niger | 118.5 | -107.3 | 118.5 | 118.5 | |
| Myanmar | 94.6 | -112.5 | 94.6 | 94.6 | |
| Syria | 62.6 | -67.7 | 62.6 | 62.6 | |
| Cambodia | 54.9 | -38.5 | 54.9 | 54.9 | |
| Afghanistan | 47.2 | -70.2 | 47.2 | 47.2 | |
| S. Sudan | 45.3 | -69.5 | 45.3 | 45.3 | |
| Haiti | 44.6 | -44.3 | 44.6 | 44.6 | |
| India | 35.3 | -11.7 | 35.3 | 35.3 | |
| Cameroon | 33.4 | -75.2 | 33.4 | 33.4 | |
| Honduras | 29.9 | -23.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | |
| Philippines | 29.8 | -33.9 | 29.8 | 29.8 | |
| Venezuela | 24.7 | -20.9 | 24.7 | 24.7 | |
| Mozambique | 23.1 | -27.9 | 23.1 | 23.1 | |
| Russia | 22.1 | -47.8 | 22.1 | 22.1 | |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 22.1 | -3.6 | 22.1 | 22.1 | |
| Ecuador | 22 | -18.5 | 22 | 22 | |
| Brazil | 15.6 | -24.7 | 15.6 | 15.6 | |
| Algeria | 15.4 | -15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | |
| Thailand | 14.8 | -14.4 | 14.8 | 14.8 | |
| South Africa | 14.1 | -42.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | |
| Central African Rep. | 13.7 | -9.2 | 13.7 | 13.7 | |
| Guatemala | 11.2 | -6 | 11.2 | 11.2 | |
| Iraq | 10.3 | -33.8 | 10.3 | 10.3 | |
| Kenya | 10.1 | -8.8 | 10.1 | 10.1 | |
| Indonesia | 10 | -12.7 | 10 | 10 | |
| Bangladesh | 9.9 | -38 | 9.9 | 9.9 | |
| Peru | 9.2 | -10.7 | 9.2 | 9.2 | |
| Ghana | 8.1 | -4.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | |
| Tunisia | 7.6 | -2.9 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |
| Kuwait | 5.9 | -1.1 | 5.9 | 5.9 | |
| Djibouti | 5 | -5.1 | 5 | 5 | |
| Nepal | 4.8 | -2.1 | 4.8 | 4.8 | |
| Papua New Guinea | 3.9 | -2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 3.7 | +0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | |
| Argentina | 3.5 | -3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |
| Jordan | 3.2 | -9.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| France | 3.1 | +0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |
| Canada | 3 | -3.6 | 3 | 3 | |
| Germany | 2.9 | -6.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
| Burundi | 2.7 | -11.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | |
| Uganda | 2.6 | -2.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Morocco | 2.2 | -0.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Benin | 2 | -7.9 | 2 | 2 | |
| Sri Lanka | 1.8 | -35.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Libya | 1.8 | -3.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Chile | 1.8 | +0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |
| Togo | 1.5 | -73.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Tajikistan | 1.5 | -9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Spain | 1.5 | +0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Belize | 1.4 | -1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.3 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |
| Oman | 1.3 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |
| Guinea-Bissau | 1.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.2 | -2.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Bahrain | 1.2 | -62.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |
| Chad | 1.1 | -31.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
| Zambia | 0.9 | +0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Dominica | 0.9 | -43.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Costa Rica | 0.9 | -71.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
| Jamaica | 0.8 | -17.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
| Dominican Rep. | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
| Angola | 0.8 | -51.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | |
| Moldova | 0.7 | -54.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
| Turkey | 0.6 | -2.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| Tanzania | 0.5 | -54.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Malaysia | 0.4 | -8.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Sweden | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| United States of America | 0.2 | -26.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
| Liberia | 0.1 | -2.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Zimbabwe | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uzbekistan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| United Kingdom | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Solomon Islands | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sierra Leone | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serbia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Senegal | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rwanda | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Romania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Qatar | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poland | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Paraguay | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Panama | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nicaragua | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Netherlands | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Namibia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mauritania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Malta | 0 | -65.2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Malawi | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Madagascar | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Macedonia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lesotho | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Laos | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Italy | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guyana | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guinea | 0 | -29.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Greece | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Georgia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gambia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| eSwatini | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eritrea | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| El Salvador | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Egypt | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Croatia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Congo | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Comoros | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| China | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Botswana | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bosnia and Herz. | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bolivia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bhutan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Belgium | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Barbados | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azerbaijan | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Austria | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Australia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Armenia | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Antigua & Barbuda | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Albania | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0 |