Data API

Programmatic access to PaCE forecast data. Updated automatically on the 1st of each month.

Country Forecasts

Quick Start

Fetch the latest forecasts in your preferred language. All endpoints are stable and updated monthly on the 1st.

import pandas as pd
import requests

# Fetch latest forecasts and historical data
forecasts = pd.read_csv("https://forecastlab.org/data/forecasts/latest/forecasts_h12.csv")
historical = pd.read_csv("https://forecastlab.org/data/forecasts/latest/Hist.csv")
metadata = requests.get("https://forecastlab.org/data/forecasts/latest/metadata.json").json()

print(f"Forecast period: {metadata['forecast_start_date']}")
print(forecasts["Ukraine"].head())  # First 5 months for Ukraine

For full API specifications, see the Complete API Reference.

Latest Forecasts

/data/forecasts/latest/forecasts_h6.csv
/data/forecasts/latest/forecasts_h12.csv
/data/forecasts/latest/metadata.json

Historical Data

Download the historical training data used to generate the predictions:

/data/forecasts/latest/Hist.csv

Historical Archive

/data/forecasts/archive/YYYY-MM/forecasts_h6.csv
/data/forecasts/archive/YYYY-MM/forecasts_h12.csv
/data/forecasts/archive/YYYY-MM/Hist.csv
/data/forecasts/archive/YYYY-MM/metadata.json

Available from 1989-01 to 2026-04.

Prediction Bounds: Add _min or _max to forecast filenames: forecasts_h12_min.csv, forecasts_h12_max.csv. What they represent: Empirical bounds derived from historical analogues. The model identifies past conflict trajectories similar to the present situation, then uses the range of those outcomes to estimate lower and upper prediction bounds. Not statistical confidence intervals, but scenario-based uncertainty estimates.

Sub-national Forecasts (PRIO-GRID)

High-resolution spatial forecasts on a 0.5° grid (~55 km cells). Download forecasts for period 2026-03 in CSV or GeoJSON format.

Quick Start

import pandas as pd
import requests

# Download grid forecasts
grid = pd.read_csv("https://forecastlab.org/data/grid/2026-03.csv")
geojson = requests.get("https://forecastlab.org/data/grid/2026-03.geo.json").json()

print(f"Grid cells: {len(grid)}")
print(grid.head())

CSV Files

0 selected

GeoJSON Files

0 selected

License and Citation

License

CC BY-NC 4.0. For commercial use, contact us.

Update Schedule

Forecasts generated on the 1st at 01:00 UTC. Data available by 03:00 UTC.

Citation

Schincariol, T., Frank, H., & Chadefaux, T. (2025). JPR. DOI