Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Key Takeaways for December 2025

Global conflict risk shows a slight increase since last month.
Top mover: Ukraine (-902.0 pts).

Forecast period: 2025-11 to 2026-04 · Updated: 08/12/2025

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

15378

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

+23

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

15 (8%)

Δ vs last month

-1

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Ukraine-902.0→
Israel+622.0→
Sudan+326.3→
Sweden+97.8→
Algeria+85.4→
Mexico-82.3→

Highest risk (next month)

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Ukraine	6847.7	-902	6894.2	6682.5
Israel	2047.6	+622	1837.9	603.5
Sudan	911.5	+326.3	1387.8	1199.3
Nigeria	740.2	+45.7	576.7	545.8
Dem. Rep. Congo	607	-48.5	555.5	421.1
Syria	551	-38.8	292	172.5
Pakistan	435.4	+57.2	340.7	313.2
Somalia	291	-37.4	313.2	288.6
Burkina Faso	282.2	+28.9	282.8	255.8
Mexico	251.7	-82.3	265.4	278
Ethiopia	245.9	+24.5	327.7	197.1
Russia	203.7	+7.9	65	97.5
Mali	173	-34.5	165.4	140.7
Myanmar	141.6	-55.2	108.4	103.8
Yemen	124	+61.4	110.9	114.1
Sweden	99.4	+97.8	42.9	95.5
Togo	92	+7.8	79.8	45
Libya	90.8	-8	11.3	14.2
Niger	89.5	-12.4	47.5	93.1
Algeria	85.6	+85.4	78.4	54.6
Cambodia	82	-7	56.1	69.7
Brazil	75.4	+32.6	28.8	54.1
Tanzania	66.5	+11.6	23.1	0
Egypt	64.4	+33.2	28.3	5.8
India	61.2	+16.9	43.6	38.4
Saudi Arabia	50.1	+2.2	32.5	15.6
Iran	50.1	+23.9	9.5	12.7
Peru	46.3	-16.8	17	16
Ecuador	46	+35.2	27.1	0
Haiti	42	-36.4	27.8	44.7
Colombia	40.2	-70.9	37.8	45.3
Central African Rep.	38.6	+21.7	30.9	23.2
Mozambique	35.3	-8.9	35.3	34.6
Cameroon	31.8	-4.1	32.9	29.8
South Africa	31.2	+16.2	25.8	52.4
Liberia	27.7	+14.8	26.8	25.9
Indonesia	26.9	+15.2	15.5	25
Lebanon	25.4	-0.6	26.2	23.6
Benin	23.5	-17	43.7	18.3
Afghanistan	18.2	+1.4	62.3	59.6
Malaysia	16.9	+1.5	0.3	22.9
Burundi	16.4	+3.6	13.2	4.3
Argentina	12.9	-20	3.2	27.8
Philippines	11.7	+1.1	12	10.3
Chad	10.1	-1.7	26	10.3
Iraq	9.5	-0.5	6	12.6
Ghana	9.3	+6.3	1.5	4.6
Angola	8.9	+2.7	3.8	4.8
Bangladesh	7.6	+2.5	4.4	1.3
Venezuela	7.2	+3.7	6.2	4.8
Tajikistan	7.1	-19.6	3.8	6.5
Laos	7	-3.3	3.1	6.2
Turkey	6.8	+6.8	0.7	3.4
Rwanda	6.6	-1.8	7.2	7.8
Qatar	5.8	-16.2	6.3	8.9
S. Sudan	4.9	-36.4	26.1	34.4
Azerbaijan	4	-11.2	2.2	3.7
United States of America	3.8	-10.8	4.2	5.9
Kenya	3.5	-4.4	10.4	6.6
Malta	3.4	+3.4	0.3	1.7
Guinea	3.4	+3.4	0.3	1.7
Thailand	3.3	+3.3	1.7	16.6
Uganda	1.8	+1.8	0.6	0
Nepal	1.8	-1.1	1.1	3.6
Guatemala	1.5	-2.4	1.7	2.1
eSwatini	1.4	-61.1	0.6	0.3
Uzbekistan	1.3	-0.4	1.4	1.6
Papua New Guinea	1.3	+0.3	2.2	1
Trinidad and Tobago	1	-4.4	0.7	1.8
France	1	+0	0.5	1.5
Belgium	1	-2.8	0.5	0.9
Côte d'Ivoire	0.9	-4.7	1.3	0.5
Morocco	0.8	-11	0.4	1.3
Jamaica	0.5	-11.8	0.6	1.4
Honduras	0.3	-1.1	2.5	0
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Zambia	0	+0	0	0
W. Sahara	0	+0	0	0
Vietnam	0	+0	0	0
Vanuatu	0	+0	0	0
Uruguay	0	+0	0	0
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
United Arab Emirates	0	+0	0	0
Turkmenistan	0	+0	0	0
Tunisia	0	+0	0	0
Timor-Leste	0	+0	0	0
Taiwan	0	+0	0	0
Switzerland	0	+0	0	0
Suriname	0	+0	0	0
Sri Lanka	0	+0	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
South Korea	0	+0	0	0
Somaliland	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Is.	0	+0	0	0
Slovenia	0	+0	0	0
Slovakia	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Puerto Rico	0	+0	0	0
Portugal	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Palestine	0	+0	0	0
Oman	0	+0	0	0
Norway	0	+0	0	0
North Korea	0	+0	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
New Zealand	0	+0	0	0
New Caledonia	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
N. Cyprus	0	+0	0	0
Montenegro	0	+0	0	0
Mongolia	0	+0	0	0
Moldova	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Luxembourg	0	+0	0	0
Lithuania	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Latvia	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Kuwait	0	+0	0	0
Kosovo	0	+0	0	0
Kazakhstan	0	+0	0	0
Jordan	0	+0	0	0
Japan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Ireland	0	+0	0	0
Iceland	0	+0	0	0
Hungary	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Guinea-Bissau	0	+0	0	0
Greenland	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Germany	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
Gabon	0	+0	0	0
Fr. S. Antarctic Lands	0	+0	0	0
Finland	0	+0	0	0
Fiji	0	+0	0	0
Falkland Is.	0	+0	0	0
Estonia	0	+0	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
Eq. Guinea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Djibouti	0	+0	0	0
Denmark	0	+0	0	0
Czechia	0	+0	0	0
Cyprus	0	+0	0	0
Cuba	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Costa Rica	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Chile	0	+0	0	0
Canada	0	+0	0	0
Bulgaria	0	+0	0	0
Brunei	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Belize	0	+0	0	0
Belarus	0	+0	0	0
Bahrain	0	+0	0	0
Bahamas	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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