Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Forecast period: 2026-03 to 2026-08 · Updated: 29/03/2026

Data warnings

Missing active countries in snapshot: Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Rep.

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

26689

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

+14487

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

16 (13%)

Δ vs last month

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Syria+4685.3→
Iran+4138.8→
Ethiopia+1786.2→
Lebanon+1579.2→
Nigeria+1081.8→
Israel+741.4→

Highest risk (next month)

Ukraine6800.4→
Syria4778.3→
Iran4199.2→
Ethiopia2159.8→
Lebanon1603.3→
Nigeria1520.9→

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Ukraine	6800.4	+82.8	7382.1	6364.8
Syria	4778.3	+4685.3	388.3	147.9
Iran	4199.2	+4138.8	2417.8	10000
Ethiopia	2159.8	+1786.2	1437.7	1382.1
Lebanon	1603.3	+1579.2	18.9	19.4
Nigeria	1520.9	+1081.8	1194.7	1058.1
Israel	1159.1	+741.4	529.3	871
Sudan	1144.2	+376.8	1203.9	1714.7
Somalia	452.8	+101.9	251.8	250.1
Pakistan	439.2	+88.8	237.1	248.9
Mexico	221.8	-184.3	579.1	334.9
Haiti	212.6	+177.6	108.6	38.9
Burkina Faso	174.5	-43.5	281.8	180.5
Myanmar	160.9	+21.3	198.8	212.1
Colombia	152.5	+91.5	188.5	135.8
Dem. Rep. Congo	109.9	-274.4	100.9	88
Tajikistan	100	+82.3	100	50
Yemen	96.9	-28.8	85.2	115.3
Niger	89.8	+6.5	107	51.6
United States of America	82.6	+78.5	12.9	7.7
Bangladesh	82.2	+77.5	71.3	156
Mali	77.8	-67.2	83.7	90.6
Uzbekistan	69.8	+69.8	76.7	0.6
Mozambique	63	+23	65.3	54
Belgium	58.9	+58.9	23.3	24.1
Sweden	58.3	+58.1	21.9	53.6
India	50.9	-8.5	61.1	70.7
Mauritania	47.1	+47.1	23.5	23.1
Jamaica	38.4	-8.9	0	0.8
Egypt	36.3	-27.6	10.4	0
Central African Rep.	34.3	+27.3	41.9	41.1
Brazil	31.3	+3.5	31.3	29.8
Indonesia	27.5	+11	17	9
S. Sudan	24.9	-12.6	23.3	20.3
Cameroon	24.7	-6.4	32.1	38.1
Nepal	21.7	+18.3	0.4	1.1
Russia	21.6	-70.5	1655.4	27
France	20.3	+1.6	53.6	73.9
Liberia	19.1	+1.2	27.8	2.7
Ecuador	17.8	-2.3	32.4	12.4
Afghanistan	17.6	+5.3	27.3	23.9
Tanzania	15.7	+15	15.9	10.9
Peru	13.8	-20.3	25	0
Laos	12.6	+6.8	3.1	1.3
Iraq	12	-0.7	17.9	29
Burundi	10.5	+4.5	5.7	5.4
Uganda	10.2	+8.3	11.9	3.4
Cambodia	8.3	+4.5	42.2	4.6
Papua New Guinea	8.1	+5.9	5.4	4.1
Malta	7.7	+6.1	0.2	7.7
Djibouti	7.6	+7.6	6	5.4
Algeria	6.6	-63.9	7.6	0
Trinidad and Tobago	5.8	+5.5	3.9	3.5
Chad	5.7	-8.2	10.6	47.5
Philippines	5.1	-6.7	4.7	0.7
Saudi Arabia	4.8	-28.7	91.3	18.7
Côte d'Ivoire	4.4	+2.8	1.4	1.2
Kenya	4.3	-2.9	12.4	5.1
Thailand	4.2	-26.9	2.9	1.8
Morocco	4.2	-0.6	0.3	0
South Africa	3.9	-28.1	6	37.1
Tunisia	3.8	+3.8	3.4	1
Azerbaijan	2.4	+2.4	0.9	1
Germany	2.3	+2.3	0.8	0.6
Benin	2.1	-17.6	1.7	0
Angola	2.1	-5.4	4.3	1.7
Qatar	1.9	-4.2	0.3	1
Venezuela	1.8	-2.3	1.1	7
Turkey	1.7	-39.8	0.3	0.2
Malaysia	1.6	-1	1.2	1.2
Guatemala	1.6	+0.7	1.4	3
Guinea	1.5	-0.1	0.4	0.1
Ghana	1.4	-5.8	0	0
United Arab Emirates	1.3	+1.3	1.4	6.7
Libya	1.3	-1.5	2	2.5
Argentina	1.3	-2.7	0.6	0.9
Togo	1.2	-42	0.6	0
Honduras	1.1	-61.5	0	2.5
Rwanda	0.5	+0.5	0.2	1.5
eSwatini	0.1	-8.4	1.1	0.1
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Zambia	0	+0	0	0
Unnamed: 0	0	+0	2	5
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
Sri Lanka	0	+0	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
Moldova	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Kuwait	0	+0	0	0
Jordan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Guinea-Bissau	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Canada	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Bahrain	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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