Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Key Takeaways for November 2025

Global conflict risk shows a slight increase since last month.
Top mover: Ukraine (+1977.5 pts).

Forecast period: 2025-10 to 2026-03 · Updated: 24/11/2025

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

15356

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

Δ total vs previous month

+2103

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

16 (9%)

Δ vs last month

Browse by list

Top risers (MoM)

Ukraine+1977.5→
Russia-1137.9→
Israel+563.1→
Syria+358.1→
Nigeria-221.2→
Pakistan+219.2→

Highest risk (next month)

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Ukraine	7749.7	+1977.5	8342	4888
Israel	1425.6	+563.1	1090.1	495
Nigeria	694.5	-221.2	681	550.2
Dem. Rep. Congo	655.5	+117.6	535.4	880.8
Syria	589.8	+358.1	533.7	263.5
Sudan	585.2	-174.7	651.4	631
Pakistan	378.2	+219.2	313.5	251.2
Mexico	334	+63.9	290.6	313.8
Somalia	328.4	+56.7	331.1	252.5
Burkina Faso	253.3	+40	244.8	246.5
Ethiopia	221.4	+3.3	253.8	120.6
Mali	207.5	+37	185.5	144.4
Myanmar	196.8	+24.6	122.2	159.9
Russia	195.8	-1137.9	470.3	868.6
Colombia	111.1	+49	78.5	142.3
Niger	101.9	+7.6	140.6	36.6
Libya	98.8	+96.9	86.7	30.3
Cambodia	89	-0.8	76.3	39.8
Togo	84.2	+84.2	29.6	18.4
Haiti	78.4	+46.4	47.8	58
Peru	63.1	+21.4	42.4	27
Yemen	62.6	-54.5	104.7	125.4
eSwatini	62.5	+11.2	37.5	100
Tanzania	54.9	-20	0	22.1
Saudi Arabia	47.9	-30.6	23.7	16
India	44.3	-11.6	59.3	51.7
Mozambique	44.2	-8.6	47.7	41.5
Brazil	42.8	+5.3	34	69
S. Sudan	41.3	+17.9	26.8	27.2
Benin	40.5	+32	9.8	2.8
Cameroon	35.9	+13.8	30.4	31.9
Argentina	32.9	+32.9	21.3	17.4
Egypt	31.2	+14.8	18.1	14
Tajikistan	26.7	+16.9	15.7	32.6
Iran	26.2	-9.3	4.2	18.3
Lebanon	26	-27.9	25.6	24.1
Qatar	22	+22	14.2	11.6
Central African Rep.	16.9	-12.8	34.3	37.7
Afghanistan	16.8	-14.1	11.5	17.4
Malaysia	15.4	-0.8	14.7	18.8
Azerbaijan	15.2	+9.6	9	18.7
South Africa	15	-1.2	13	55.9
United States of America	14.6	+14.6	9.5	7.7
Liberia	12.9	-16.5	28.9	9.5
Burundi	12.8	-10.5	9.3	11.1
Jamaica	12.3	+3.8	2.6	8.7
Morocco	11.8	-8.4	15.3	10.4
Chad	11.8	+4.1	27.4	12.5
Indonesia	11.7	+3.8	6.1	9.1
Ecuador	10.8	+7.6	8.1	3.4
Philippines	10.6	-13.4	6.4	6.5
Laos	10.3	+5.7	7	5.3
Iraq	10	-6.3	6.3	8.2
Rwanda	8.4	-6	10.9	7.4
Kenya	7.9	+1.1	7.3	8.5
Angola	6.2	-4.6	0	3.4
Côte d'Ivoire	5.6	-8.4	3.8	6.3
Trinidad and Tobago	5.4	-33	0.9	3.4
Bangladesh	5.1	-1.3	4.1	2.8
Guatemala	3.9	+2.4	3.1	0.4
Belgium	3.8	+2.4	2.2	4.7
Venezuela	3.5	-40.7	4.1	3.2
Ghana	3	-0.8	1.6	2.2
Nepal	2.9	-2	3.2	2.1
Uzbekistan	1.7	-1.2	2.2	1.5
Sweden	1.6	+1.3	3.1	0.7
Honduras	1.4	-0.5	2.1	1.2
Papua New Guinea	1	-0.5	0	0.1
France	1	-0.2	0.5	1.5
Algeria	0.2	-1.6	1	0.1
Zimbabwe	0	+0	0	0
Zambia	0	+0	0	0
W. Sahara	0	+0	0	0
Vietnam	0	+0	0	0
Vanuatu	0	+0	0	0
Uruguay	0	+0	0	0
United Kingdom	0	+0	0	0
United Arab Emirates	0	+0	0	0
Uganda	0	+0	0	0
Turkmenistan	0	+0	0	0
Turkey	0	+0	0	0
Tunisia	0	+0	0	0
Timor-Leste	0	+0	0	0
Thailand	0	-4.9	0	13.6
Taiwan	0	+0	0	0
Switzerland	0	+0	0	0
Suriname	0	+0	0	0
Sri Lanka	0	+0	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
South Korea	0	+0	0	0
Somaliland	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Is.	0	+0	0	0
Slovenia	0	+0	0	0
Slovakia	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Puerto Rico	0	+0	0	0
Portugal	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Palestine	0	+0	0	0
Oman	0	+0	0	0
Norway	0	+0	0	0
North Korea	0	+0	0	0
Nicaragua	0	+0	0	0
New Zealand	0	+0	0	0
New Caledonia	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
N. Cyprus	0	+0	0	0
Montenegro	0	+0	0	0
Mongolia	0	+0	0	0
Moldova	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	0
Malta	0	+0	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Luxembourg	0	+0	0	0
Lithuania	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Latvia	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Kuwait	0	+0	0	0
Kosovo	0	+0	0	0
Kazakhstan	0	+0	0	0
Jordan	0	+0	0	0
Japan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Ireland	0	+0	0	0
Iceland	0	+0	0	0
Hungary	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Guinea-Bissau	0	+0	0	0
Guinea	0	+0	0	0
Greenland	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Germany	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
Gabon	0	+0	0	0
Fr. S. Antarctic Lands	0	+0	0	0
Finland	0	+0	0	0
Fiji	0	+0	0	0
Falkland Is.	0	+0	0	0
Estonia	0	+0	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
Eq. Guinea	0	+0	0	0
El Salvador	0	+0	0	0
Djibouti	0	+0	0	0
Denmark	0	+0	0	0
Czechia	0	+0	0	0
Cyprus	0	+0	0	0
Cuba	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Costa Rica	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	0
Chile	0	+0	0	0
Canada	0	+0	0	0
Bulgaria	0	+0	0	0
Brunei	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Belize	0	+0	0	0
Belarus	0	+0	0	0
Bahrain	0	+0	0	0
Bahamas	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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