Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Forecast period: 1989-01 to 1989-06 · Updated: 11/03/2026

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month ahead predictions and month‑over‑month changes. Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)

5013

Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries

High‑risk countries (>100 next month)

7 (5%)

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Top risers (MoM)

Highest risk (next month)

Predicted Fatalities (1, 3, 6‑month)

Table shows next‑month predicted fatalities per entity and Δ MoM versus the previous forecast file.

Name	1m Pred.	Δ MoM	3m Pred.	6m Pred.
Ethiopia	2716	+0	441	99
Afghanistan	691	+0	1744	495
Somalia	500	+0	0	0
Angola	252	+0	345	24
Lebanon	142	+0	127	27
El Salvador	126	+0	202	36
Peru	103	+0	112	197
Sudan	100	+0	102	40
Jamaica	100	+0	0	0
Philippines	60	+0	77	155
Mozambique	60	+0	18	278
India	49	+0	37	65
Guatemala	30	+0	6	8
Sri Lanka	21	+0	18	27
Zimbabwe	19	+0	9	0
South Africa	16	+0	9	15
Colombia	9	+0	21	15
Nicaragua	8	+0	0	83
United Kingdom	3	+0	5	2
Pakistan	3	+0	29	0
Turkey	2	+0	11	43
Mexico	2	+0	0	0
Israel	1	+0	5	3
Zambia	0	+0	0	8
Yemen	0	+0	0	0
Venezuela	0	+0	17	0
Uzbekistan	0	+0	0	0
United States of America	0	+0	0	0
United Arab Emirates	0	+0	0	0
Ukraine	0	+0	0	0
Uganda	0	+0	0	350
Tunisia	0	+0	0	0
Trinidad and Tobago	0	+0	0	0
Togo	0	+0	0	0
Thailand	0	+0	0	0
Tanzania	0	+0	0	0
Tajikistan	0	+0	0	0
Syria	0	+0	0	0
Sweden	0	+0	0	0
Spain	0	+0	0	0
Solomon Islands	0	+0	0	0
Sierra Leone	0	+0	0	0
Serbia	0	+0	0	0
Senegal	0	+0	0	0
Saudi Arabia	0	+0	0	0
S. Sudan	0	+0	0	0
Rwanda	0	+0	0	0
Russia	0	+0	0	97
Romania	0	+0	0	0
Qatar	0	+0	0	0
Poland	0	+0	0	0
Paraguay	0	+0	0	0
Papua New Guinea	0	+0	0	100
Panama	0	+0	0	0
Nigeria	0	+0	0	0
Niger	0	+0	0	0
Netherlands	0	+0	0	0
Nepal	0	+0	0	0
Namibia	0	+0	0	0
Myanmar	0	+0	152	31
Morocco	0	+0	0	4
Moldova	0	+0	0	0
Mauritania	0	+0	0	3
Malta	0	+0	0	0
Mali	0	+0	0	0
Malaysia	0	+0	0	0
Malawi	0	+0	0	0
Madagascar	0	+0	0	0
Macedonia	0	+0	0	0
Libya	0	+0	0	0
Liberia	0	+0	0	0
Lesotho	0	+0	0	0
Laos	0	+0	0	0
Kyrgyzstan	0	+0	0	0
Kuwait	0	+0	0	0
Kenya	0	+0	3	0
Jordan	0	+0	0	0
Italy	0	+0	0	0
Iraq	0	+0	0	0
Iran	0	+0	0	0
Indonesia	0	+0	0	0
Honduras	0	+0	0	0
Haiti	0	+0	0	0
Guyana	0	+0	0	0
Guinea-Bissau	0	+0	0	0
Guinea	0	+0	0	0
Greece	0	+0	0	0
Ghana	0	+0	0	0
Germany	0	+0	0	0
Georgia	0	+0	0	0
Gambia	0	+0	0	0
France	0	+0	0	0
eSwatini	0	+0	0	0
Eritrea	0	+0	0	0
Egypt	0	+0	0	0
Ecuador	0	+0	0	0
Dominican Rep.	0	+0	0	0
Dominica	0	+0	0	0
Djibouti	0	+0	0	0
Dem. Rep. Congo	0	+0	0	0
Croatia	0	+0	0	0
Côte d'Ivoire	0	+0	0	0
Costa Rica	0	+0	0	0
Congo	0	+0	0	0
Comoros	0	+0	0	0
China	0	+0	0	2600
Chad	0	+0	0	0
Central African Rep.	0	+0	0	0
Canada	0	+0	0	0
Cameroon	0	+0	0	0
Cambodia	0	+0	5	36
Burundi	0	+0	0	0
Burkina Faso	0	+0	0	0
Brazil	0	+0	0	0
Botswana	0	+0	0	0
Bosnia and Herz.	0	+0	0	0
Bolivia	0	+0	0	0
Bhutan	0	+0	0	0
Benin	0	+0	0	0
Belize	0	+0	0	0
Belgium	0	+0	0	0
Barbados	0	+0	0	0
Bangladesh	0	+0	0	12
Bahrain	0	+0	0	0
Azerbaijan	0	+0	0	0
Austria	0	+0	0	0
Australia	0	+0	0	0
Armenia	0	+0	0	0
Argentina	0	+0	0	0
Antigua & Barbuda	0	+0	0	0
Algeria	0	+0	0	0
Albania	0	+0	0	0

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