PaCE — Project Summary
Patterns of Conflict Emergence
Overview
PaCE (Patterns of Conflict Emergence) is a five‑year ERC‑funded research project (2022–26) at Trinity College Dublin. The lab develops transparent, data‑driven methods to identify recurring patterns preceding conflict and forecast geopolitical risk at country and sub‑national levels.
Fast Facts
- Coverage: 180+ countries and 259,000 sub‑national areas
- Horizon: up to 6 months ahead
- Cadence: monthly updates
- Affiliation: Trinity College Dublin (Political Science)
- Funding: ERC (Grant 101002240)
Timeline
- Project period: 2022–2026
- Monthly forecast releases
- Methodological updates as preprints and publications
Affiliations
Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin
Attribution
This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement no: 101002240). Use the ERC logo alongside this text on press materials mentioning project funding.