Forecasts

Six‑month forecasts of conflict fatalities at the country and sub‑national level.

Monthly Conflict Forecasts

Forecasts for the period 2025-10 to 2026-03 · Updated: 24/11/2025

All values represent predicted conflict fatalities (deaths from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence) over the next 6 months. The table shows 1‑month predictions and the change from the previous forecast.

Glossary

Total predicted fatalities (1‑month)
15356
Sum of next‑month predictions across all countries
Δ total vs previous month
+2103
Change in total 1‑month predicted fatalities
Sub‑national Areas covered
259,200