FAQ
Quick answers to common questions about our methods, forecasts, and data.
Are the patterns specific to a country, region, or epoch?
No. We test out‑of‑country, out‑of‑region, and out‑of‑period generalization and find that core shapes recur across contexts. See our Predictability working paper.
Do you make subnational predictions?
Yes. We forecast at PRIO‑GRID (0.5°) and country levels. See the 3D shapes working paper in Working Papers.
How does the autoregressive baseline compare?
At short horizons, purely autoregressive shape‑matching performs on par with covariate‑augmented versions. See EPJ Data Science and the JPR paper on variability.
How do you quantify uncertainty?
We construct similarity‑weighted mixtures of analog futures to produce prediction intervals (50/80/95%), quantiles, and exceedance risks; calibration is monitored with rolling coverage, PIT, and CRPS. Details on the Methodology (Draft) page.
What horizons do you support?
Typically 1–6 months; weekly or quarterly on request.
Can I use the data and forecasts?
Yes. See Downloads for datasets and formats, and Publications for citation details.