Downloads
Access our conflict forecasts as raw data. Country-level and grid-level predictions available in CSV and GeoJSON formats.
Latest update: 11/03/2026
Country-level Forecasts (CSV)
Six‑month‑ahead predictions made in each month.
Bulk download (recent periods)
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Preview (first 5 rows and columns)
,Afghanistan,Albania,Algeria,Angola 0,0.1905556025915545,0.0,0.1296296296296296,2.3772727272727274 1,0.2831074468100396,0.0,0.074074074074074,1.109090909090909 2,0.2540807358882547,0.0,0.2962962962962963,1.309090909090909 3,0.4203685245121644,0.0,0.074074074074074,1.45 4,0.2781902402680805,0.0,3.333333333333333,0.0
Grid-level Forecasts
Pre‑computed monthly centroid points and GeoJSON polygons for PRIO‑GRID 0.5° cells.
Bulk download (latest period assets)
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Format
- Monthly points CSVs: lat,lon,v
- Combined CSV: lat,lon,m1,m2,m3,m4,m5,m6
- GeoJSON features with properties.m1..m6
Preview (first 5 rows and columns)
lat,lon,v 32.75,-95.25,2.3704283653059974 32.75,-92.25,37.43399351090193 32.25,-94.25,18.82572642744829 32.25,-92.25,39.743200079227485 32.25,-99.25,14.973597122666737
Data Rights & Use
Unless stated otherwise, datasets on this page are licensed under CC BY‑NC 4.0 (Attribution‑NonCommercial). You may share and adapt for non‑commercial use with attribution. For commercial use, please contact us.
Attribution example:
PaCE (2025). Monthly Conflict Forecasts.Disclaimer: Provided “as is”, without warranty; not for safety‑critical decisions.
Acceptable use: Do not use to target, harass, or cause harm; comply with applicable laws.
How to Cite
If you use these data or figures, please cite:
Schincariol, T., Frank, H., & Chadefaux, T. (2025). Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics: A pattern-based predictive model. Journal of Peace Research. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433251330790