Downloads

Access our conflict forecasts as raw data. Country-level and grid-level predictions available in CSV and GeoJSON formats.

Latest update: 08/12/2025

Country-level Forecasts (CSV)

Six‑month‑ahead predictions made in each month.

Bulk download (recent periods)
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Preview (first 5 rows and columns)
,Afghanistan,Albania,Algeria,Angola
2025-11-30,18.167260274865697,0,0.8561020274661078,8.865274290596119
2025-12-31,110.78629583268139,0,0.923032209421099,10.06603005236751
2026-01-31,62.28613316903979,0,0.7839117226795703,3.7782727528983635
2026-02-28,16.25090557033328,0,0.35770370858334855,3.4138673298540168
2026-03-31,28.027405074844836,0,0.4503239836741483,2.3173061150153482

Grid-level Forecasts

Pre‑computed monthly centroid points and GeoJSON polygons for PRIO‑GRID 0.5° cells.

Bulk download (latest period assets)
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Format
- Monthly points CSVs: lat,lon,v
- Combined CSV: lat,lon,m1,m2,m3,m4,m5,m6
- GeoJSON features with properties.m1..m6
Preview (first 5 rows and columns)
lat,lon,v
30.25,-104.25,2.3704283653059974
30.25,-101.25,37.43399351090193
29.75,-108.25,14.973597122666737
29.75,-103.25,18.82572642744829
29.75,-101.25,39.743200079227485

Data Rights & Use

Unless stated otherwise, datasets on this page are licensed under CC BY‑NC 4.0 (Attribution‑NonCommercial). You may share and adapt for non‑commercial use with attribution. For commercial use, please contact us.

Attribution example:PaCE (2025). Monthly Conflict Forecasts.
Disclaimer: Provided “as is”, without warranty; not for safety‑critical decisions.
Acceptable use: Do not use to target, harass, or cause harm; comply with applicable laws.

How to Cite

If you use these data or figures, please cite: Journal of Peace Research (2025). Accounting for variability in conflict dynamics. DOI