21 March 2023
Advances in Social Science Forecasting
Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
Speaker
Professor Galit Shmueli
Topic
“Forks over knives: Predictive inconsistency in criminal justice algorithmic risk assessment tools.”
Abstract
Big data and algorithmic risk prediction tools promise to improve criminal justice systems by reducing human biases and inconsistencies in decision-making. Yet different, equally justifiable choices when developing, testing and deploying these socio-technical tools can lead to disparate predicted risk scores for the same individual. In this talk Prof. Galit Shmueli explored the challenges of ‘predictive inconsistency’, arguing that in a diverse and pluralistic society we should not expect to completely eliminate predictive inconsistency, but identify and document reasonable ‘forking paths’.