31 January 2024
Guest Seminar: Three-stage Hierarchical Hurdle Count Model for Conflict Forecasting
Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
Speaker
Dr Cornelius Fritz
About the Speaker
In my research, I use statistics to learn from network data to answer questions posed within the social sciences in uncertain and changing environments. My research mainly originates from multidisciplinary collaborations with social scientists approaching me with data and questions revolving around networks. As a statistician, I operate in two worlds: the real world, which encompasses observed data with all its imperfections and substantive knowledge of the subject matter, and the model world, which is an artificial representation of the real world characterized by a stochastic model. I develop novel data analysis techniques by combining statistical and machine learning with substantive theory to bridge the gap between the real and model world.