Methodology Glossary

Conflict fatalities

Unless stated otherwise, “conflict fatalities” refers to the sum of deaths from state‑based armed conflict, non‑state conflict, and one‑sided violence against civilians, following the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) taxonomy and “best” estimates.

State‑based armed conflict

Use of armed force between two parties, at least one being a government, resulting in battle‑related deaths. Examples include government–rebels or interstate conflict.

Non‑state conflict

Use of armed force between two organized actors, neither of which is the government, leading to fatalities (e.g., clashes between armed groups or militias).

One‑sided violence

Intentional use of force by an organized actor against civilians that results in deaths. Includes state or non‑state actors targeting civilians.

Forecast horizons

We report predictions for one, three, and six months ahead (1m, 3m, 6m). “Next month” (1m) refers to the first month following the latest observation window; the 6‑month horizon spans the next six months in total.

Units of analysis

Forecasts are provided at the country‑month level and at a sub‑national grid (PRIO‑GRID 0.5° cells). Grid downloads include per‑cell points (lat, lon) and polygons with values for months m1..m6.

Data source

Fatality counts are derived from the UCDP/Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) and associated candidate files. Unless otherwise noted, we use the UCDP “best” estimate.

Uncertainty and risk

Forecasts are inherently uncertain. We emphasize distributional properties (e.g., projected variability) and provide qualitative “risk bands” where relevant to summarize relative risk.