Ethiopia
Predicted fatalities from state‑based, non‑state, and one‑sided violence.
Predicted fatalities per grid cell (0.5° × 0.5°), Ethiopia
Scenarios are generated by identifying historical conflict patterns that most closely resemble the current situation in Ethiopia. Our model analyzes thousands of past conflict trajectories worldwide and clusters them based on similarity in dynamics, intensity, and contextual factors.
Each line represents a distinct scenario — a cluster of similar historical cases whose trajectories inform potential futures. The percentage shown for each scenario indicates its probability: how likely the model considers this trajectory given current conditions. Higher probability scenarios are shown with more opaque lines. The dashed red portions show projected paths over the next six months, while the solid gray segments show the observed historical pattern leading up to the present.
This approach captures the inherent uncertainty in conflict forecasting: rather than a single prediction, we present multiple plausible outcomes weighted by their likelihood based on historical precedent.
What happened and closest historical matches
We compare the last 10 months in Ethiopia to historical trajectories worldwide and show the closest matches. Gray lines depict the matched past pattern, the dashed black line is Ethiopia's recent path, and red shows how those cases evolved over the next six months. Lower “distance” means a closer match.